Progress Ohio | Upper Arlington Progressive Action: The Future of the 15th

Post from Upper Arlington Progressive Action:

The Future of the 15th - Brooks or Kilroy?

By Jump23 - Mar 9th, 2007 at 12:39 pm EST

Also listed in: Ohio 15th Congressional District | Upper Arlington Progressive Action

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*Cross-posted to UA Progressive Action *

There has been a great deal of discussion recently about who may run against Deb Pryce in 2008. Paula Brooks recently formed a 527 which may be a stepping-off point for running in the 15th. There has also been some buzz (and some assumptions) that Mary Jo would run against Pryce in a rematch in 2008.

Here are some numbers for Arlington:

2006 Kilory

+/- win/loss: -2,704 votes
UA precincts won: 1
Average precinct performance: -80 votes

2004 Kilroy

+/- win/loss: -2,456 votes
UA precincts won: 3
Average precinct performance: -72 votes

2004 Brooks

+/- win/loss: +511 votes
UA precincts won: 21
Average precinct performance: +15 votes

2006 Celeste

+/- win/loss: -1,051 votes
UA precincts won: 10
Average precinct performance: -31 votes

Obviously performance in UA should not be a single factor for determining a candidate's strength, but it is hard to argue against UA's strategic importance if you're running in 15.

The numbers above are stark, especially considering that Kilroy lost by 1,062 votes. The key for Democratic candidates running in House 15 (or anywhere else that covers Arlington for that matter) is to "stem-the-bleeding" in UA and do pretty strongly in the other less-Republican areas. Ted Celeste did this effectively when he won his Ohio House 24 seat this past November - though he won just 10 UA precincts, his average loss in UA per precinct was just 31 votes. By keeping it competitive, UA didn't kill him elsewhere.

So what do YOU think? Should it be the Kilroy rematch or Brooks that takes on Pryce?

Reader Comments

If there is a primary

By Dave Harding, ProgressOhio Mar 9th 2007 at 1:41 pm EST

The person who wins it should be the candidate for Congress.

However, I think the numbers that you present regarding Ms. Brooks and Upper Arlington are misleading without stating the fact that Upper Arlington is Paula Brooks hometown and she served on the city council there for years.

The potential positive outlook for Brooks you allude to from the numbers you provide will be significantly lessened in a race against Pryce because Upper Arlington is her hometown too.

The primary reason Mary Jo Kilroy lost (if a primary reason can adequately be identified) is the gerrymandering of the 15th district to include Union and Madison Counties.

Whomever, the candidate from Ohio's 15th District is will have to overcome these same obstacles.

Remember Pryce won these two counties by a margin far greater than the difference in total votes between Kilroy and "hometown favorite" Brooks in Upper Arlington in the County Commissioner race in 2004.

Re: If there is a primary

By Jump23 Mar 11th 2007 at 11:51 pm EDT

Paula's past performance in UA isn't only important because of UA, but also because it shows that she can win Republicans and independents. Again, that is something that Mary Jo had difficulty with. Candidates can afford to loose Republicans if they can really run the score up elsewhere, but that didn't happen either. I believe that Paula will be a stronger candidate in those areas where Mary Jo lost many votes, including UA, Madison county and Union county.

Also, the hair stands up on the back of my neck whenever I hear someone say their candidate lost because of gerrymandering or the layout of the district.

Lastly, you totally lost me on the last sentence of your post - can you show me what you meant with some numbers?

You go, Mary Jo

By Daily Outrage Mar 9th 2007 at 1:58 pm EST

When Kilroy got into the race, few believed she could win. It wasn't supposed to be close. But she believed in herself, opposed the war before it was PC and had the courage to take on a GOP congressional leader. If she came so close last time, she can win this time.

Sorry Paula.

Kilroy or Brooks

By User from Columbus, OH Apr 9th 2007 at 6:15 pm EDT

Ms. Kilroy did not help her cause when the Sunday before the election, the Dispatch follows her campaigning in the Short North and includes a quote from the Stonewall Union. I know that staffers in Ms. Pryce's office were thankful. Where the hell were the votes to be gained at such a late date in the Short North? Why not be hustling for votes at a 4H competition in Marysville or Union County? Who in the hell was in charge? The same folks who decided that Kerry could only win by running the table in selected states? I think Howard Dean's strategy to at least attempt to compete everywhere was proven last fall. Whining about how the evil Republicans gerrymandered districts is pathetic. Continue to win and draw competitive districts if you want better political representation or gerrymander them in favor of Dems if all you want to do is win but please don't whine.