ProgressOhio

Will Barack Obama's election lead to the rapprochement with Iran, the last remaining outlaw state under the so-called "Axis of Evil" targeted by the outgoing Bush administration?

Journalist and Iran expert Barbara Slavin is cautiously optimistic. Both the U.S. and Iran face tremendous economic problems, which makes unlikely the sort of war openly advocated by hard-liners only a few months ago, Slavin said tonight in Washington at the annual meeting of the Friends Committee on National Legislation (FCNL).

In addition, Obama's election for the first time could put Iran on the defensive if the new president with the Muslim name and heritage decides to push for negotiations, as was promised during the campaign, she said.

Some old taboos have been shattered on both sides during the latter years of the Bush administration, she said, and today there's broad agreement it will be impossible to make progress on a Middle East peace without Iran's cooperation.

"But it's not going to be easy," she added. "It's never easy when it comes to Iran."

And we can't be sure if Obama -- and the new Congress -- will agree on such a U-turn in foreign policy as long as Iran continues to pursue its nuclear ambitions. According to FCNL, 128 members of the current House and 23 members of the Senate have sponsored or co-sponsored bills seeking to isolate Iran from U.S. Middle East diplomacy.

Slavin didn't specifically mention today's reports that Hillary Clinton has been offered the Secretary of State's job in the new administration. Clinton, during the Democratic primary, criticized Obama during for agreeing to negotiate with Iran.

But Slavin did say she's worried "about some of Obama's (foreign policy) advisers. We'll have to see who his team is."

Slavin is assistant managing editor of the Washington Times and author of the history, "Bitter Friends, Bosom Enemies: Iran, the U.S., and the Twisted Path to Confrontation."

Slavin regrets that so many opportunities have been missed in the past to avoid this confrontation with Iran, given the progress that could be made in the Middle East if these two powers could work cooperatively.

"My personal view is that Iran will not develop and test a nuclear weapon," she said. But Iran will pursue nuclear power development which would soon give them the capability of making nuclear weapons at some point in the near future if they so chose.

"And that would be scary because it would spark a (regional) arms race" resulting in nuclear proliferation across the Middle East."