October 25, 2011 - Opposition To Ohio's SB 5 Grows, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Women, Union Members Push Kasich Deeper In Hole
If the election were held Tuesday instead of in two weeks, a solid majority of Ohioans would vote to reject the state's new law restricting collective bargaining by government workers.
The latest poll from Connecticut's Quinnipiac University released Tuesday showed a 25-point gap between opposition and support for Senate Bill 5, which appears on the Nov. 8 ballot as Issue 2. That's nearly double the 13-point gap seen about a month ago when the poll showed momentum shifting to the side of those trying to save the law.
"With two weeks until Election Day, the opponents of SB 5 have strong reason to be optimistic," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The opponents had seen their 24-point margin in July close over the summer and early autumn. As we enter the home stretch, however, they have once again taken a commanding lead. Except for Republicans, just about every demographic group favors repealing the law."
By a margin of 57 percent to 32 percent, registered voters questioned said they will vote "no'' on Issue 2, rejecting the law. That compares to 51 percent to 38 percent seen on Sept. 27.
The fate of Issue 2 appears to coincide with voters' opinion of Gov. John Kasich, whose disapproval numbers are also up. Voters disapprove of his job performance by a margin of 52 percent to 36 percent.
Voter opinion about the governor tracks the feelings about SB 5. Republicans give Kasich a thumbs up 71 - 23 percent, not hugely different than the 75 - 14 percent margin by which Democrats disapprove of his job performance. The difference is independent voters, who Kasich carried in his election victory in 2010, but who now give him a negative job approval rating 54 - 30 percent. Men disapprove 50 - 41 percent, while women give him a 54 - 31 percent thumbs down, compared to 51 - 35 percent last month.
Democrats have characterized Issue 2 as a referendum on the Republican governor's policies. Mr. Kasich, however, will not face voters for three years.
"Anything is possible in politics, but with such across-the-board support for repealing SB 5, the governor and his team can't be optimistic about the fate of their law," Mr. Brown said.
The poll suggests that Mr. Kasich and the Republican General Assembly may have fared better if they'd taken a more focused approach to dealing with what they've characterized as a contract negotiating table tilted too far to the side of public employee unions.
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